The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February and held at 2.4% year-over-year — matching economist expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, posted a 0.2% monthly increase and 2.5% annual rate. These figures are confirmed by Fox Business, CNBC, Bloomberg, and BLS data.

Shelter costs — the largest CPI component — rose 0.2%, with rent posting its smallest monthly increase since January 2021 at just 0.1%. Food prices accelerated 0.4% for the month, with beef and veal up 14.4% year-over-year. Eggs fell 42.1% from their avian flu peak. Apparel jumped 1.3%, the biggest monthly gain since September 2018.

The February data reflects conditions before the Iran war's full economic impact. Economists across the spectrum warn that the oil shock will push inflation higher in coming months. Heather Long of Navy Federal Credit Union told CNBC: 'Before the war in Iran sent gas prices spiking, inflation was starting to look a bit better.'

Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley said: 'A steady inflation reading would probably be a welcome data point on any other day, but against the current backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and surging oil prices, it may not carry as much weight.'

Markets priced in a 99.3% probability the Fed will hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at its March 17-18 meeting. The BLS noted that data quality from December 2025 through April 2026 may be affected by the October 2025 government shutdown's disruption to data collection.