The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 on March 18 to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75 percent range, citing elevated geopolitical and economic uncertainty stemming from the Iran war. Governor Stephen Miran dissented, voting for a 25-basis-point cut amid rising concerns about the labor market. The decision was confirmed by Fox Business, CBS News, CNBC, and the Federal Reserve's official press release.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his post-meeting press conference that near-term inflation expectations had risen "in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by supply disruptions in the Middle East." Powell reiterated that the Fed needs greater confidence that inflation is returning to its 2 percent target before reducing rates. He also said he intended to complete his term, which runs through 2026, despite earlier reports of White House pressure.

The Fed's updated projections — the so-called dot plot — showed officials now expect just one rate cut in 2026, down from the two cuts projected in December 2025, and one additional cut in 2027. The committee raised its core personal consumption expenditures inflation forecast to 2.7 percent for 2026, up from December's projection, while slightly increasing its GDP growth forecast to 2.4 percent as higher energy prices are expected to boost domestic oil sector output.

Fox Business and The Mortgage Reports cited analysts who said the rate hold was in line with market expectations and that the central bank is navigating a classic wartime inflation dilemma. CBS News and Advisor Perspectives noted that the dissent from Miran — a Trump appointee — was the first dissent at a 2026 Fed meeting and signaled growing internal debate about whether slowing economic momentum warrants rate relief despite the inflation pressures.