The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy lost a net 92,000 jobs in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% — the worst monthly report since early 2023 and the first month of job losses since the COVID recovery. On the same day, Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 25%, up 5 percentage points. Brent crude oil closed above $100 per barrel on March 12 for the first time since August 2022. These figures are confirmed by BLS data, Goldman Sachs research, Fox Business, NPR, CNN Business, and Fortune.
The economic deterioration reflects the compounding impact of the Iran war on an already tariff-stressed economy. The Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of global seaborne oil exports transited before the war — has been effectively closed since February 28. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in his first public statement on March 12, vowed to keep the strait closed. The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves from 32 nations, with the United States contributing 172 million barrels. Despite the release, Brent crude reached $100.46 on March 12.
Global markets fell sharply in response to the combined jobs-and-oil shock: the S&P 500 fell 1.3% on March 12; Japan's Nikkei dropped more than 5% in its worst single session since 2020. Iran's IRGC threatened that oil could reach $200 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz closure continued. The Pentagon told Congress in a closed-door briefing that the first six days of Operation Epic Fury cost at least $11.3 billion.
Fox Business and conservative commentators framed the economic pain as a strategic byproduct of a necessary operation, noting that the Strait closure also 'squeezes Russia's war chest and China's oil lifeline.' NPR and left-leaning economists said the combination of job losses, rising unemployment, and surging oil prices created 'worst-case stagflation conditions' for ordinary Americans, and warned that the recession risk was rising faster than the White House was acknowledging.
Left-Leaning Emphasis
- NPR said the combination of job losses, rising inflation, and oil shock creates 'worst-case stagflation conditions for ordinary Americans.'
- Left outlets emphasized that Goldman's 25% recession probability is 'rapidly approaching threshold levels' that typically precede contractions.
- NPR noted that Nikkei's 5%+ single-day drop reflected global contagion risk beyond U.S. markets.
Right-Leaning Emphasis
- Fox Business framed oil disruption as strategically useful: the Hormuz closure 'squeezes Russia's war chest and China's oil lifeline.'
- Conservative commentators said short-term economic pain was the 'price of eliminating a nuclear threat' and would stabilize once the operation succeeded.
- Fox noted that oil reserve releases and OPEC pledges to increase output could moderate prices if the strait reopens.
Sources
- NPR Mar 11
- Fox Business Mar 11
- CNN Business Mar 12
- Fortune Mar 12