The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 22, predicting below-normal activity driven primarily by the presence of El Niño, a periodic warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures that tends to increase upper-level wind shear over the Atlantic and inhibit hurricane development.
NOAA's outlook represents a significant departure from several recent hurricane seasons that saw above-normal activity. El Niño conditions create atmospheric patterns that disrupt the warm, low-wind environments that tropical storms need to intensify, effectively acting as a natural suppressor of Atlantic hurricane formation and strengthening.
Despite the encouraging forecast, meteorologists caution that a below-normal season does not mean a risk-free one. Even a single landfalling hurricane can cause catastrophic damage regardless of overall seasonal activity, and forecasters urge coastal residents to continue preparing as they would in any season.
The forecast covers the official Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30. NOAA typically issues updated outlooks mid-season as atmospheric conditions evolve and the reliability of El Niño predictions improves closer to peak storm months in August and September.
Left-Leaning Emphasis
- PBS NewsHour framed the forecast in the context of climate variability, emphasizing NOAA's scientific methodology.
- AP highlighted the damage-risk angle even in a below-normal season, stressing that individual storms can still be catastrophic.
- The Hill contextualized the forecast within broader environmental policy coverage, noting the role of oceanic temperature patterns.
Right-Leaning Emphasis
- Breitbart's provided URL was unrelated to the hurricane forecast story and could not be used for right-leaning framing on this topic.